In fairness, while Mayweather recently beat Juan Manuel-Marquez in a one-sided fight, Floyd admitted he was a little rusty, as demonstrated by way of mostly one and two punch combinations. And while the De La Hoya fight was more of a unanimous victory to my eyes, the judges felt it was close enough to score it a split-decision. Hatton was a punching bag with no defense, as both Mayweather and Pacquiao demonstrated. Ricky is fun to watch but doesn’t belong at the upper-crust of the sport. He would have been fascinating against the Gatti’s and Ward’s of the business.

Floyd, if he wants to control the tempo of his match against Mosley, needs to be able to double up his jab and keep Mosley at bay, and find three and four punch combinations to keep Shane off balance. If Mosley is allowed inside, it is entirely likely this fight will become a toss up. This will be his first real test since before he faced De La Hoya, probably since his fight with Castillo, to be fair. The fact that he hasn’t faced this level of quality in his opposition in so many years begs the question… Does Floyd really have the tools to put away a P4P contender, Mosley, who beat the living pants of Margarito with courage, heart, and textbook skills?

Look for the first few rounds to be a mental battle, with both fighters trying to find their stride and establish a winning rhythm that will carry them the rest of the fight. Mayweather will try to make Mosley look bad by counter-punching him and sneaking out of the way when Shane loads up for his power shots. The judges have a hard time giving points to the aggressor when he’s missing all of his big punches.

However, Floyd can’t cover up and pot shot all night, or he will end up on the losing side of the scoring. As long as Mosley shore’s up his defense while applying pressure, he will have some success by outworking Floyd. Mayweather is more about quality than quantity, meaning he prefers to throw smart, efficient punches that land with great accuracy rather than unleashing 100 punches in a round with a lower connect percentage.

Will this strategy work against Mosley? It’s hard to speculate, because Mosley has more power than most of the opponents Mayweather has faced in the last few years. After the first power shot lands clean on Mayweather’s chin, Floyd will have a decision to make. Will his animal instinct come out in retaliation? Or will he remain calm under pressure and stick to his outside game? A scrappy fight should favor Mosley.

Of course, not since Judah and Castillo before him has anyone really landed anything flush on Mayweather’s chin. His most remarkable talent in the ring, more than his ability to knock a guy out, is in his ability to make the other guy miss. Compubox has opponents only landing 15.75% of their punches against Floyd in his last five fights. That is an unbelievable accomplishment, especially against guys like Hatton, De La Hoya, Judah and Marquez, all of whom were used to landing their punches. What makes Mosley any different?

If Shane can pull a Castillo out of his hat, he has a better chance to win than his recent predecessors. Castillo landed 40% of his total punches (203 landed of 506 thrown), and STILL came out on the losing side of the judges’ scorecards. It’s worth noting that Castillo landed almost three times more power shots against Floyd as well (173 landed to only 67 by Floyd). But that was 2002, this is 2010. Both fighters are different men than they were back then. Better in some ways, older in others.

Naazim Richardson is in Mosley’s corner now. The same Brother Naazim who lifted Mosley up from the ashes to find a TKO victory against Margarito. If you’ve been watching any of HBO’s 24/7 recently, you will find in Naazim a man of few words, but one with great self-belief and a confidence that spills off onto his fighter. Some questioned Shane’s firing of his own father as long-time trainer and replacing him with Brother Naazim (among them, Floyd Mayweather himself), but if the Margarito fight showed us anything, it showed us a Mosley with renewed self-belief. I have to think it has something to do with the trainer.

Many say Mosley’s chance against Mayweather is a puncher’s chance only. I can’t say I agree. He is a smart, crafty fighter with great power it is true, but he knows how to adapt to an opponent. The one thing Mosley has NOT demonstrated, however, is how to deal with pure boxers. Forrest and Wright both exposed Mosley by sticking to the jab, and controlling the center of the ring. Cotto was a much closer fight, but Mosley still looked a few steps behind. This was the moment of clarity when many of us felt Mosley may be over the hill.

Which brings up a point… However this fight goes down, these are two men in their 30’s, bringing up the rear in the old guard of the sport, both on their way out of the spotlight, love them or hate them. Bernard Hopkins has been a rare exception in terms of aging with grace, and even HE looked a shadow of his former self against Roy Jones Jr.. Mosley has been in many more “wars” than Floyd has, which takes its toll on the body. Floyd is coming off a nearly 2 year retirement, with only 12 rounds of glorified sparring under his belt since returning to active status. Mosley hasn’t fought in over a year-and-a-half.

So those first three rounds will not only be about figuring out the opponent, but perhaps also figuring out their own abilities and limitations inside the squared circle. It is what makes this a hard fight to predict. On one hand you have to give the edge to Floyd on pure boxing and uncanny defense. But if he’s even a half a step slow on May 1, Mosley just might improve his puncher’s chance to a legitimate opportunity to hand Mayweather his first defeat. He certainly is conducting himself with the confidence and self-belief needed to come out victorious.

If I have to make a prediction, I think this will be a split-decision win for Mayweather, with the first two rounds going to Mosley for effective aggressiveness, rounds 3 thru 7 favoring Mayweather on ring generalship and defense, rounds 8 thru 10 to Sugar Shane on pure heart and Floyd covering up and running to avoid getting caught. The last two rounds will be critical, but I see Floyd picking apart the aggressive Mosley, who will feel he has to prove he is the best in spectacular fashion. I think this is most likely where Mosley could knock Mayweather out, depending on whether he lands a haymaker on the undefeated adversary.

So, I have it Mayweather for the win, 7 rounds to 5. There are more questions than answers, however, so if it were the reverse, I wouldn’t be surprised. The only scenario I don’t see happening is Mayweather winning by KO or TKO. I just don’t think he has the punching power to take down the stalwart Mosley. Mosley is not Hatton; he is more well-rounded and faster on his feet and with his hands. He’s more experienced at this level of competition as well, a huge advantage when needing to know how to adapt to what your opponent is doing.

Mosley can potentially put Mayweather on the canvas, but only if Floyd decides to turn this into the war which Mosley will be seeking. But I don’t see that happening, even if Naazim thinks Floyd will “sprout wings and a tail and turn into a dragon.” Floyd is, and always will be, a clever fox in the ring. The dragon in this match-up will be Shane. Can the fox outwit the dragon and find his weakness? Or will the dragon’s fire balls send the fox a running?

Leaderboard After Day One:

Stay tuned to Sports City Line for updates throughout the 2010 Master’s Tournament.

• Middleweight Championship bout: Anderson Silva vs. Demian Maia
• Lightweight Championship bout: B.J. Penn vs. Frankie Edgar
• Welterweight bout: Matt Hughes vs. Renzo Gracie
• Lightweight bout: Terry Etim vs. Rafael dos Anjos
• Middleweight bout:Kendall Grove vs. Mark Munoz

Stay tuned to Sports City Line for the latest fight predictions and weigh-in updates.

Main Fight Card

• Heavyweight Bout:  Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs.  Cain Velasquez
• Middleweight Bout:  Wanderlei Silva vs.  Michael Bisping
• Lightweight Bout:  Joe Stevenson vs.  George Sotiropoulos
• Light Heavyweight Bout:  Keith Jardine vs.  Ryan Bader
• Heavyweight Bout:  Mirko Filipović vs.  Anthony Perosh

The long expected bout between Yoshihiro Akiyama and Wanderlei Silva will not take place at this event. Instead, Silva will face Michael Bisping.

Several Australian fighters have been thrown into the card, making the first event to be held in Australia also one of the fastest to sell out.

A bout between Nate Marquardt and Chael Sonnen which was expected to take place on this card was moved to UFC 109. A bout between Keith Jardine and Rich Franklin was being discussed. Jardine will instead fight the Ultimate Fighter 8 Winner Ryan Bader.

• Light Heavyweight bout:  Randy Couture vs.  Mark Coleman
• Middleweight bout:  Nate Marquardt vs.  Chael Sonnen
• Welterweight bout:  Mike Swick vs.  Paulo Thiago
• Middleweight bout:  Demian Maia vs.  Dan Miller
• Welterweight bout:  Matt Serra vs.  Frank Trigg^[

* Light Heavyweight bout: United States Tito Ortiz vs. United States Forrest Griffin
* Welterweight bout: United States Josh Koscheck vs. United States Anthony Johnson
* Welterweight bout: Brazil Paulo Thiago vs. United States Jacob Volkmann
* Light Heavyweight bout: Brazil Luiz Cane vs. Brazil Antonio Rogerio Nogueira
* Welterweight bout: United States Amir Sadollah vs. United States Phil Baroni

Preliminary Card (Spike TV)

* Welterweight bout: United States Ben Saunders vs. United States Marcus Davis
* Middleweight bout: United States Kendall Grove vs. United States Jake Rosholt

Preliminary Card (Non-televised)

* Welterweight bout: United States Brock Larson vs. United States Brian Foster
* Lightweight bout: Japan Caol Uno vs. Brazil Fabricio Camoes
* Lightweight bout: Australia George Sotiropoulos vs. United States Jason Dent

Stay tuned for predictions and the weigh-in - at SportsCityLine.com!

Legendary boxing trainers like Angelo Dundee and Emanuel Steward predict that Cotto’s skills and power will earn him a victory over the most exciting fighter in the world in Pacquiao, while Pacman’s astute trainer Freddie Roach and conditioning guru Alex Ariza boldly claim that Cotto will not last against their fighter’s blinding speed and vaunted power. Many popular fighters, who either currently have a championship title or have held one in the past, like Bernard Hopkins, Mike Tyson, and Floyd Mayweather, Jr., agree with Roach and Ariza’s assessment. Hopkins believes that Cotto’s youthful face will be “busted up” in this fight; Mayweather states that Pacquiao “is a quick starter” and he leans toward the latter in this showdown; and Mike Tyson undoubtedly forecasts, “Pacquiao will win.” There are countless predictions made by different, knowledgeable boxing experts for this championship duel and the fighters truly deserve all the accolades and recognitions because they amazingly stand out amongst all the fighters of today: two gallant warriors ready to face and destroy each other with their limitless arsenal of “Firepower.”

What: UFC 104: Machida vs. Shogun

When: The undercard starts at 7 PM ET Saturday, Spike TV will show an hour of fights beginning at 9 and the pay-per-view begins at 10.

Where: Staples Center, Los Angeles

How: You can buy it for $44.95 on UFC.com or from your cable or satellite provider ($54.95 in HD), or you can just follow along with our live coverage here at FanHouse.

Predictions on the five pay-per-view fights:
Lyoto Machida vs. Shogun Rua
I’m a longtime Shogun fan, and I’ve been a little annoyed at the way so many UFC fans I hear from are dismissing him as not even a serious challenge to Machida, as if Shogun is just some bum who has no business in the Octagon with a world champion. I don’t buy that at all. I think Shogun is a legitimate No. 1 contender and a legitimate threat, and I’m looking forward to this fight. Having said that, I’ve long believed Machida was the best light heavyweight in the world — I had him No. 1 in my light heavyweight rankings even before he was the champion — and I don’t see him losing to anyone at 205 pounds. Pick: Machida.

Cain Velasquez vs. Ben Rothwell
This heavyweight fight is a way for the UFC to give some exposure to Velasquez, whom the promotion views as a potential future heavyweight champion. I actually think Rothwell — who’s bigger, better on his feet and much more experienced — is going to give Velasquez a much tougher time than most people realize, but I do expect Velasquez to take Rothwell down and keep him there enough to come away with a close decision. Pick: Velasquez.

Gleison Tibau vs. Josh Neer
Both of these guys are very good on the ground, but I think Tibau will show that he’s bigger, stronger and has better Brazilian jiu jitsu and submit Neer. Pick: Tibau.

Anthony Johnson vs. Yoshiyuki Yoshida
Johnson is a great athlete and a great striker who, at age 25, could be a future welterweight champion of the world — at least if he can stay at 170 pounds, a weight limit he has trouble making. Yoshida has better submission skills and could get Johnson into trouble on the ground, but I don’t think he’ll be able to get him there. Pick: Johnson.

Joe Stevenson vs. Spencer Fisher
Stevenson came back from a two-fight losing streak with a big win over Nate Diaz at the UFC Fight Night in June, but I like Fisher, who’s on a three-fight winning streak, to keep this fight standing and beat Stevenson on his feet. Pick: Fisher.

• Catchweight (195 lb) bout: Rich Franklin vs. Vitor Belfort^[1]
• Heavyweight bout: Mirko Filipović vs. Junior dos Santos^[1]
• Welterweight bout: Martin Kampmann vs. Paul Daley^[1]
• Welterweight bout: Josh Koscheck vs. Frank Trigg^[1]
• Lightweight bout: Tyson Griffin vs. Hermes Franca^[1]

[edit] Preliminary card

• Lightweight bout: Efrain Escudero vs. Cole Miller^[1]
• Middleweight bout: Drew McFedries vs. Tomasz Drwal^[1]
• Lightweight bout: Jim Miller vs. Steve Lopez^[1]
• Lightweight bout: Rafaello Oliveira vs. Nik Lentz^[1]
• Welterweight bout: Rick Story vs. Brian Foster^[1]
• Light Heavyweight bout: Eliot Marshall vs. Jason Brilz^[1]
• Light Heavyweight bout: Vladimir Matyushenko vs. Igor Pokrajac^[1]
• Lightweight bout: Rob Emerson vs. Rafael dos Anjos^[1]

Here is the complete UFC 101 fight card:

Main event:

UFC Lightweight Champion BJ Penn vs. Kenny Florian

Main card (Televised):

205 lbs.: Forrest Griffin vs. Anderson Silva
185 lbs.: Amir Sadollah vs. Johny Hendricks
185 lbs.: Kendall Grove vs. Ricardo Almeida
155 lbs.: Kurt Pellegrino vs. Josh Neer

Under card (May not be broadcast):

155 lbs.: Shane Nelson vs. Aaron Riley
170 lbs.: John Howard vs. Tamdan McCrory
185 lbs.: Alessio Sakara vs. Thales Leites
170 lbs.: Matt Riddle vs. Dan Cramer
155 lbs.: George Sotiropoulos vs. Rob Emerson
170 lbs.: Danillo Villefort vs. Jesse Lennox